Winter temperatures in the GTA will continue rise, climate scientists say

A critical study has shown that the GTA can expect numerous days above-freezing temperatures for the rest of its winters. 

Clime Central — an international collective of climate scientists— recently released a study that tracked changes in global warming temperatures over the last decade. 

The timeline, which monitored winter months from 2013 to 2024, showed a pattern that was as concerning as it was consistent —especially in the GTA. 

Data sets released this Monday (Dec. 16) showed that regions throughout southern Ontario experienced over a week’s worth of winter days above the average temperatures for the last 10 years, with conditions anticipated to continue into the future. 

These regions and their corresponding temperature fluctuations were:

• Halton Region: 10 additional days above freezing annually 
• Durham Region: Nine additional days above freezing annually
• Peel Region: Nine additional days above freezing annually 
• York Region: Eight additional days above freezing annually 

According to the data, Toronto-proper experienced the worst impact in all of Ontario, as the city experienced an average of 13 winter days above freezing.

Kristina Dahl, the VP of Science at Climate Central, has been pondering the data and is adamant that this past pattern of warmer days is a likely warning of things to come. However, concerning physical representations of climate change, Dahl surprisingly believes that summer often gets more attention in Canada than winter. 

“The reality is, that winters across the globe are warming faster than summers, and that means that there are a lot of potential changes to winter-connected activities and economies,” Dahl told INsauga.com. 

Dhal then noted the recent string of brutal summer conditions in Canada, such as droughts and wildfires, which force Canadians to associate the visual impact of climate change often with summer.

As a result, Dahl notes that changes in winter topography in places like Ontario, where mountains or glaciers are absent, often appear as minor ailments, such as local ponds or rivers not staying frozen or rain replacing snow. 

However, there is nothing minor about these lasting changes, as Philippe Marquis, an Olympian and coach of Canada’s national freestyle ski team attached to Climate Central’s report, is equally concerned about the findings.

“I have seen a lot of snow-based sports be impacted over the years as well as businesses connected to them, especially in areas out west like B.C. and Whistler,” Marquis told INsauga.com. “Then when you get out east the impact is not as visual but you still see this abundance of grey winters and brown winters, when not too long ago, it always used to be white.” 

According to Climate Central’s data, northern regions like Canada are seeing the most visible impacts of temperature changes on a global scale. 

Despite this, Dhal mentions that, due to Canada’s wildly different topography, temperature fluctuations are not wholly consistent across the board — as coastal cities do not show much in the way of temperature change due to their already temperate nature. 

Despite this, the information collected is still incredibly viable, as by applying a hyper-local analysis, cumulative results can be found. 

“It’s the biggest reminder to me of how much geography matters, especially when talking about how important local climate impact is. If we were to report just a single number for Canada as a whole (per how many days above freezing) it would be meaningless. We have to look at the local impacts to understand things better,” says Dhal.

Dhal doesn’t split hairs and notes that this decade-long phenomenon is not just growing pains, as warmer winters are likely here to stay. 

What’s even more concerning for Dhal is how a good chunk of the population views unseasonably warm weather as a luxury, a term which she refers to as a ‘delight-mare’ scenario. 

“For many of us who live in places with cold winters, when you get a week-long stretch in January where it’s 10 degrees warmer than usual, it can feel like a real gift. It’s delightful but scary, it’s a delight-mare. You get a break from the cold but once you step back and think about it, you realize you are feeling climate change in action,” says Dhal. 

Dhal further notes that this will inevitably rearrange fundamental aspects of Canadian life, such as animal behavior, crop growth and how Canadians spend their time outside in the winter. 

A prospect that people like Marquis, find no delight in. 

“The scary thing is, I wish there weren’t so many examples, I wish there was just one but, the needle is moving and at a fast pace. The number of additional days we have above zero all across Canada is extremely scary and visible,” says Marquis.

Moving forward, Dhal only hopes that for each melted pond and shortened ski season, Ontarians become aware of how dire the situation is, as she states “Whether it is a wildfire, a cold snap or a heatwave, with luck, each event it will increase awareness of what is happening to daily life.”