Will it be a white Christmas in Ontario?

Christmas day is less than two weeks away and many will be wondering if there will be snow on the ground in Ontario come Christmas morning.

Some parts of the province have been hard-hit by snowsqualls recently.

Blizzard warnings were even in place for areas east of Lake Huron this week, with Environment Canada warning of the possibility of more than 80 cm for some.

Squalls are normally quite localized, however, and there hasn’t yet been a widespread, large snowstorm for all of southern Ontario.

Anything can happen within the 12 days still to go before Christmas, however.

The forecast for the Greater Toronto Area currently shows temperatures hovering just above or below the freezing mark over the next few days, with no big snowstorms expected.

But based on historical data, Environment Canada has determined the probability of different areas in the province seeing a white Christmas.

The weather agency defines a white Christmas as having 2 cm of snow or more on the ground at 7 a.m. eastern on Dec. 25.

Based on data from 1997 to 2023, the Greater Toronto Area has a 36 per cent chance of seeing a white Christmas. That’s down by 32 per cent, when from 1960 to 1984, it would have been at 68 per cent.

Overall, based on data from 1955 to 2023, the GTA has a 49 per cent chance of seeing a white Christmas.

Hamilton has a 59 per cent chance based on 69 years of data.

In Barrie, an area much more prone to snowsqualls, the chance of a white Christmas stands at 76 per cent historically.

Wiarton, which is also prone to squalls and was under a snowsquall warning Friday, historically has a 78 per cent chance.

Among the areas most likely to see a white Christmas based on past records are Kenora (100 per cent), Timmins (97 per cent), Thunder Bay (96 per cent) and Sudbury (93 per cent).

Toronto and Windsor are tied for the lowest chance at just 43 per cent.

Notably, all areas listed by Environment Canada, with the exception of Kenora, have seen less white Christmases in recent years compared to several decades ago.

Here is a look at the data from Environment Canada:

* Data compiled from a shorter period: 1980-2023
** Data compiled from a shorter period: 1986-2023
*** Data compiled from a shorter period: 1961-2023

For a full look at the data, visit Environment Canada’s website.