Warmer winter predicted for parts of Ontario and Canada

Those looking forward to winter activities such as skiing and skating may be disappointed with the weather outlook this season.

It could be a warmer-than-normal winter this year in parts of Ontario and across Canada, according to Environment and Climate Change Canada’s seasonal outlook for winter 2023/24.

Above-normal temperatures are expected in many parts of the country in December, January and February, said Gerald Cheng with Environment and Climate Change Canada during the outlook presentation on Dec. 1.

A warmer winter is predicted in parts of northern Ontario, Quebec, Northwest Territories, Nunavut and Atlantic Canada along with the coast of British Columbia, Cheng said.

A map shows darker areas where the warmer temperatures are most likely.

However, that doesn’t mean there will be warm temperatures every day in places indicated by the Environment Canada map.

“It means that the average temperature of these three months will be above normal,” Cheng said.

There will be day-to-day fluctuations, meaning there could be colder days or winter storms.

“There is always a risk of severe weather events so be prepared,” Cheng said.

Unfortunately, the forecast for snow for much of Canada isn’t clear.

There is an increased chance of below-normal snow depth in western Canada, said Nathan Gillett of Environment and Climate Change Canada during the presentation. This is because the warmer than normal temperatures will likely create rainy conditions rather than snow, said Gillett.

“And snow on the ground will tend to melt more quickly,” he added.

Those looking for more snow may have to travel to Canada’s north. Above-normal snow depths are forecast for northern Quebec, parts of the Yukon, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut.

Strong El Niño conditions are expected to impact the weather patterns and are part of the reason for the warmer-than-normal winter, Gillett said. This will be particularly felt in western Canada but also across much of the country.

The other factor behind warmer winters, particularly in the north, is human-induced climate change, said Gillett.

“Canada has warmed substantially over recent decades, especially in the north,” he said. “Most of this warming has been caused by human-induced climate change.”

Between 1948 and 2016, Environment and Climate Change Canada, has observed warming trends for Canada’s winters, particularly in the north and west areas.

See the full winter weather outlook here.