Conservatives and Liberals neck-and-neck as Milton byelection looms

With some new faces in provincial politics set to shake things up a bit, it’s still hard to say who will win in Milton’s upcoming byelection. 

A recent Liaison Strategies poll shows a tight race in Milton, where former town councillor Zeeshan Hamid plans to run as a Conservative candidate for the seat recently vacated by PC MPP Parm Gill. For the Liberals, now led by former Mississauga Mayor Bonnie Crombie, the candidate is Galen Naidoo Harris, who has worked in the constituency offices of elected Liberal politicians.

The poll suggests Naidoo Harris and Hamid would both receive 39 per cent of the decided and leaning vote if the byelection was held today. 

Conducted from March 27-28, Liaison’s Milton poll surveyed 451 voters using interactive voice response technology. The company also examined voter intentions in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, where another byelection is scheduled to take place. 

“Milton was a tight race in the 2022 election with the Ford Tories winning by only 4 per cent. Among all voters the PCs hold a razor thin 1 per cent lead, while among those decided and leaning, the Liberals and Tories are tied at 39 per cent a piece,” said David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, on the company’s website. 

“This is the kind of riding Bonnie Crombie needs to win if she’s going to form a government. Conversely, if Doug Ford and the PCs can hold onto seats like Milton, it bodes well for re-election.” 

On the website, Valentin said Lambton-Kent-Middlesex is “trending Tory.” 

This week’s announcement of the byelection to fill the vacant riding has brought out more candidates.

The NDP and Green Party now have candidates of record, and a person who is running without any party affiliation has entered the race. As well, a candidate from the New Blue Party put his name forward.

For the NDP, Edie Strachan will be the candidate. She is a long-time Milton resident and member of the party and works on behalf of the Ontario Public Service Employees Union.

Kyle Hutton will be running for the Green Party. He has been an active member of his party since 2019 and has run for the party in the past.

The New Blue candidate is John Spina, who ran in the 2022 election. New Blue has existed since 2020 and is considered to be a socially conservative party that operates solely in Ontario.

The independent candidate is Arabella Vida. 

The poll suggests the NDP are polling at 10 per cent, while the Greens are polling at five per cent. 

“We’ll learn a lot from these byelections as the parties test-run their campaign messages. These will be the first contests held with Bonnie Crombie as the new leader. Both ridings will have important pieces of information as we approach the 2026 Ontario election,” Valentin said on the website.

The byelection will be held on Thursday, May 2.

– With files from Steve Pecar