100 million travellers a year could use Pearson Airport in Mississauga, Ontario by 2037

The number of travellers using Pearson Airport in Mississauga could more than double to as many as 100 million annually within the next 15 years, the organization that runs the airport says.

Already Canada’s biggest and busiest airport, with nearly 45 million people making their way through its gates in 2023, Pearson will likely see about 85 million annual travellers by 2037, airport officials predict.

However, Pearson Airport’s Master Plan (2017 to 2037) also allows for a scenario, albeit a less likely forecast authors of the document note, in which the airport will welcome 100 million travellers 13 years from now.

In their official plan for the future, officials with the Greater Toronto Airports Authority, which runs Pearson, also provide a third, low-end forecast in which they envision 60 million annual travellers in 2037.

“Looking forward from today, we project that the number of people wanting to fly to, from and through Toronto Pearson will grow at 3.1 per cent per year — higher than forecast in our Master Plan,” airport officials said in the Master Plan’s executive summary. “The most likely scenario for 2037 is that Toronto Pearson will serve about 85 million passengers…we estimate this will represent about 91 per cent of all passengers flying into and out of airports in southern Ontario in 2037.”

Pearson’s forecasts further note that while the Greater Toronto Area’s population is expected to grow by about 33 per cent in the next decade-and-a-half, “air passenger traffic at Toronto Pearson during the same period will increase by 81 per cent.”

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The number of annual travellers using Pearson Airport will increase significantly in the next decade and beyond. (Photo: Pearson Airport X)

Pearson statistics show that since 2016, with the exception of the COVID-19 pandemic years (2020-2022), between 44 million and 50 million travellers used the airport annually.

In addition to a significant increase in passenger travel, Pearson Airport officials are also anticipating a similar rise in the demand for cargo shipments in the coming years and into the next decade.

“Our analysis indicates that Toronto Pearson should expect to handle 958,000 tonnes of cargo in 2037, up from 450,000 tonnes today,” officials said, adding that translates to an annual growth rate of 4.1 per cent.

Annual cargo shipment numbers at Pearson between 2019 and 2023, again with the exception of pandemic years, ranged from 410,000 tonnes to 465,000 tonnes (Statistics Canada).

Fewer flights will move more people and goods

Also contained in Pearson’s Master Plan is the observation that while numbers of both travellers and cargo shipments are expected to significantly increase over the next 10 to 15 years, “proportionately fewer flights will move greater volumes of people and goods.”

That’s due, airport officials said, to an industry-wide shift to larger, high-density and more fully occupied aircraft over the next two decades.

The number of aircraft movements (takeoffs and landings) is forecast to grow at a clip of about 1.5 per cent annually between today and the end of the 2030s, the airport’s Master Plan noted.

“Our most likely scenario for 2037 suggests that aircraft movements will increase to 632,000 from today’s (2017) 478,000,” Pearson officials said. “At the same time, the average number of passengers on a plane passing through Toronto Pearson will be 140, compared to 108 today. This represents a 30 per cent increase in the productivity of our runway system.”

Multibillion-dollar plan to modernize Pearson

Meanwhile, the GTAA announced earlier this year a multibillion-dollar plan to update and modernize Pearson Airport.

The airports authority said it launched the first phase of procurement for Pearson LIFT, a plan intended to help the airport meet growing demand for its services.

“This is the very beginning of what will be a decade-long investment in our facilities and our terminals across the airport,” Deborah Flint, president and CEO of the GTAA, said in April.

“After many, many years where we have had tired and aged assets across the airport facility, we’ll be systematically investing in those, investing in them to bring them up to not just a state of great repair, but positioning them for the future.”

“Growth is coming to Pearson”

In an earlier press release, officials said Pearson “has been meeting passenger needs by deploying extraordinary resources to many of its aged assets and facilities, which is not a sustainable solution with passenger traffic expected to grow.”

“Growth is coming to Pearson. It’s coming across the global aviation industry and across North America,” added Flint.

LIFT, which stands for Long term Investment in Facilities and Terminals, will begin with a program focused on “the fundamentals,” said Flint.

The program will see the modernization of existing airport assets, including high-speed taxi lanes, a modernized airfield electric lighting and control system, and interim terminal facilities, according to the earlier press release. The plan also includes investments in power generation to help the airport achieve net-zero targets.

“We’re very committed to making sure that Toronto Pearson … is not going to experience the challenges of the past that will hinder its growth and competitiveness,” Flint said earlier this year.

— with files from The Canadian Press