House Prices Officially Falling in Mississauga

While it would be highly inaccurate to say that housing is getting more affordable, it’s not wrong to point out that housing prices–namely detached housing prices–have dropped quite a bit month-over-month in Mississauga and surrounding areas.

HOUSE PRICES DROPPING INSAUGA QBN (1) from insauga on Vimeo.

The Toronto Real Estate Board recently announced that GTA realtors reported 4,019 residential transactions through TREB’s MLS system in January 2018–that’s a decrease of 22 per cent compared to a record 5,155 sales reported in January 2017.

TREB says 8,585 homes were listed – a 17.4 per cent increase compared to 7,314 new listings entered around this time last year. That said, TREB says the level of new listings was the second lowest for the month of January in the past 10 years.

“TREB released its outlook for 2018 on January 30. The outlook pointed to a slower start to 2018, especially compared to the record-setting pace experienced a year ago,” says TREB president Tim Syrianos.

“As we move through the year, expect the pace of home sales to pick up, as the psychological impact of the Fair Housing Plan starts to wane and home buyers find their footing relative to the new OSFI-mandated stress test for mortgage approvals through federally regulated lenders.”

As far as prices go, they’re still high–but they’re falling (or coming back into balance, rather).

TREB says the MLS home price index composite benchmark was up by 5.2 per cent year-over-year and that, surprisingly enough, the growth was driven by the condo market

As far as low-rise homes go, prices are essentially flat compared to last year. The overall average selling price was down by 4.1 per cent year-over-year to hit $736,783, mostly because of a decline in detached house prices.  

As for Mississauga in particular, both sales and prices are down.

Zoocasa, a real estate website and brokerage based in Toronto, noted that sales for all categories declined 16 per cent from 490 in December 2017 to 409 in January 2018. Year-over-year, sales are down by 19 per cent from 509 in January 2017 to 409 in January 2018.

Zoocasa also says that average prices for all categories (meaning detached, semi-detached, town and condo home types) declined by six per cent from $675,656 in December 2017 to $631,672 in January 2018.

Year-over-year, prices are down by nine per cent from $700,369 in January 2017 to $631,672 in January 2018.

Zoocasa also says that inventory declined by 13 per cent from 1,087 in December 2017 to 936 in January 2018. Still, the inventory is not nearly as low as it was in winter of 2017 (you probably remember the dramatic bidding wars and sky-high price escalations). Zoocasa says that, year-over-year, active listings continued the upward trend of the past few months, surging 108 per cent from 448 in January 2017 to 936 in January 2018.

“It is not surprising that home prices in some market segments were flat to down in January compared to last year.  At this time last year, we were in the midst of a housing price spike driven by exceptionally low inventory in the marketplace,” says Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.

“It is likely that market conditions will support a return to positive price growth for many home types in the second half of 2018.  The condominium apartment segment will be the driver of this price growth.”

As for numbers specific to the entire GTA, a detached house in the 905 currently costs about $879,048 (way down from $910,216 in December 2017). A semi costs about $638,899 (up from $635,999), towns are selling for $588,439 (a little up from $575,894) and condos are costing buyers about $421,927 (down from $430,001 in December).

But while sales are low, the market doesn’t appear to be in trouble.

“It’s important not to let year-over-year figures skew how we look at market conditions. We know that sales are down from 2017’s abnormally high first quarter levels,” says Lauren Haw, Zoocasa CEO. “Sales are in-line with the the hot 2016 market – when we saw headlines about the ‘continuous overheating’ market, when the average home price in Mississauga was $545,174 in January 2016 versus $631,672 now.”

“Our agents have confirmed that the January market was fast – meaning the buyers have increasing urgency and good inventory simply isn’t keeping up. We’re seeing prices across the first-time buyer entry points (be it condo, townhouse or a house) go up, and the return of 10+ offers on many properties.”